COVID-19 Bed Management Using a Two-Step Process Mining and Discrete-Event Simulation Approach

The sudden admission of many patients with similar needs caused by the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic forced health care centers to temporarily transform units to respond to the crisis. This process greatly impacted the daily activities of the hospitals. In this paper, we propose a two-step approach based on process mining and discrete-event simulation for sizing a recovery unit dedicated to COVID-19 patients inside a hospital. A decision aid framework is proposed to help hospital managers make crucial decisions, such as hospitalization cancellation and resource sizing, taking into account all units of the hospital. Three sources of patients are considered: (i) planned admissions, (ii) emergent admissions representing day-to-day activities, and (iii) COVID-19 admissions. Hospitalization pathways have been modeled using process mining based on synthetic medico-administrative data, and a generic model of bed transfers between units is proposed as a basis to evaluate the impact of those moves using discrete-event simulation. A practical case study in collaboration with a local hospital is presented to assess the robustness of the approach. Note to Practitioners—In this paper we develop and test a new decision-aid tool dedicated to bed management, taking into account exceptional hospitalization pathways such as COVID-19 patients. The tool enables the creation of a dedicated COVID-19 intensive care unit with specific management rules that are fine-tuned by considering the characteristics of the pandemic. Health practitioners can automatically use medico-administrative data extracted from the information system of the hospital to feed the model. Two execution modes are proposed: (i) fine-tuning of the staffed beds assignment policies through a design of experiment and (ii) simulation of user-defined scenarios. A practical case study in collaboration with a local hospital is presented. The results show that our model was able to find the strategy to minimize the number of transfers and the number of cancellations while maximizing the number of COVID-19 patients taken into care was to transfer beds to the COVID-19 ICU in batches of 12 and to cancel appointed patients using ICU when the department hit a 90% occupation rate. IEEE

Towards A Framework for Implementing Remote Patient Monitoring From an Integrated Care Perspective: A Scoping Review

Background: Remote patient monitoring (RPM) has been increasingly adopted over the last decade, with the COVID-19 pandemic fostering its rapid development. As RPM implementation is recognised as complex and highly demanding in terms of resources and processes, there are multiple challenges in providing RPM in an integrated logic. Methods: To examine the structural elements that are relevant for implementing RPM integrated care, a scoping review was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, leveraging a search strategy that combines terms relative to (1) conceptual models and real-life initiatives;(2) RPM;and (3) care integration. Results: 28 articles were included, covering nine conceptual models and 19 real-life initiatives. Eighteen structural elements of RPM integrated care implementation were identified among conceptual models, defining a structure for assessing real-life initiatives. 78.9% of those initiatives referred to at least ten structural elements, with patient education and self-monitoring promotion, multidisciplinary core workforce, ICTs (information and communications technologies) and telemonitoring (TM) devices, and health indicators measurement being present in all studies, and therefore being core elements to the design of RPM initiatives. Conclusion: RPM goes far beyond technology, with underlying processes and involved actors playing a central role in care provision. The structural elements identified can guide RPM implementation and promote maturity in adoption. Future research may focus on assessing design completeness, evaluating impacts, and analysing related financial arrangements.

COVID-19 Crisis Timeline: The Warning and the Surge

After an initial warning, an infectious health crisis, especially a viral one, can surge rapidly from a small outbreak to an overwhelming epidemic or even a pandemic. A surge usually consists of a rapid escalation phase, a peak phase, and a slow de-escalation phase. A surge may include an increase of all categories of patients, emergency room visits, in-patient admissions, and critically ill patients with multi-organ failure requiring ventilation, hemodialysis, and other intensive care measures. There is an accumulative effect of the rapid successive waves of patients admitted into the hospital, with a severe strain on the human and material resources of the hospital. In many health crises, as with the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of the patients are hospitalized for a long time. Such a long hospitalization slows down the recovery from the crisis significantly. There is a disruptive effect of a health crisis on regular hospital functions and services, such as elective surgery, ambulatory clinics, and care and follow-up of patients with diseases other than the cause of the infectious crisis. This disruption may result in worsening of chronic diseases, such as diabetes, asthma, mental illnesses, and others. It may also result in delay in diagnosis and treatment of various types of cancers and later presentation of cancers at higher stages. Consequently, the disruption places special requirements for resumption of regular services after the crisis and an additional substantial burden on hospital capabilities. This chapter describes the initial COVID-19 crisis at SBH Health System in the Bronx, New York, USA, and shows its unfolding surge over time alongside an overview of the response. While the COVID-19 crisis has unique characteristics, many lessons learned from this crisis can be applied to other crises, especially infectious pandemics. © SBH Health System 2022.

Thirty years of ANZICS CORE: A clinical quality success story

In 2023, the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Registry run by the Centre for Outcomes and Resources Evaluation (CORE) turns 30 years old. It began with the Adult Patient Database, the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care Registry, and the Critical Care Resources Registry, and it now includes Central Line Associated Bloodstream Infections Registry, the Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation Database, and the Critical Health Resources Information System. The ANZICS Registry provides comparative case-mix reports, risk-adjusted clinical outcomes, process measures, and quality of care indicators to over 200 intensive care units describing more than 200 000 adult and paediatric admissions annually. The ANZICS CORE outlier management program has been a major contributor to the improved patient outcomes and provided significant cost savings to the healthcare sector. Over 200 peer-reviewed papers have been published using ANZICS Registry data. The ANZICS Registry was a vital source of information during the COVID-19 pandemic. Upcoming developments include reporting of long-term survival and patient-reported outcome and experience measures.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Surge Response on Motivation Among Anesthesiology Residents and Fellows: A discussion of findings from semi-structured interviews at Montefiore Medical Center and educational takeaways.

Background: The American Board of Medical Specialties definition of medical professionalism cites the need to acquire, maintain, and advance a value system serving the patients' and public's interests above self-interests.4 Medical professionalism is a one of the core physician competencies assessed by both the ACGME training program evaluation and the ABA certification process. However, a growing concern for the decline of professionalism and altruism in medicine resulted in increased publications on the matter, citing various potential sources for the issue. Methods: All residents and fellows (Focus Group 1) of the Anesthesiology Department of Montefiore Medical Center in Bronx, NY were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview via Zoom, held on two separate dates. A separate invitation was sent to the faculty of the department (Focus Group 2), held on one date. During the interview, guiding questions were provided by the 4 interviews to facilitate discussion. The interviewers, all members of the anesthesia faculty, took notes as the interviews progressed. The notes were reviewed for common themes as well as supporting and contradicting quotations. Results: A total of 23 residents and fellows and a total of 25 faculty members within the Anesthesiology department at Montefiore Medical Center were interviewed. Amongst the findings, common discussions concerned motivating and demotivating factors contributing to the professionalism and altruism exhibited by the residents and fellows when caring for critical COVID-19 patients during the height of the pandemic. It was widely regarded that patient improvement, community and team support, as well as intrinsic desire to help greatly motivated the team while continuous patient deterioration, uncertainty in staffing and treatment, and concerns for personal and family safety were sources of discouragement. Overall, faculty perceived an increased demonstration of altruism amongst residents and fellows. The statements made by the residents and fellows during their interviews supported this observation. Conclusions: The actions of the Montefiore Anesthesiology residents and fellows demonstrated that altruism and professionalism were readily available amongst physicians. Increased levels of empathy and responsibility contributed to a demonstration of professionalism that challenges previous views of a perceived decline of these attributes in the medical field. The findings of this study stress the importance of creating a curriculum and exercise that stress empathy-based care and altruism in order to improve resident satisfaction and decrease feelings of burnout. Additionally, curriculum additions to facilitate professionalism are proposed.

The Kaiser Permanente Northern California COVID-19 physician redeployment experience: Redeploying physicians to meet the demands of the pandemic

This paper describes a redeployment programme developed by Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KP NCAL) to meet physician staffing needs during five COVID-19 surges in Northern California. By leveraging two existing programmes, creating a flexible system of redeployment levels, and supporting the system with a robust training programme, the physician redeployment programme effectively addressed physician staffing needs, maximised excellent patient care, and supported KP NCAL physicians during the pandemic. The programme delivered care to over 131,000 outpatients with COVID-19 infection and redeployed physicians into more than 800 inpatient shifts. © Henry Stewart Publications, 1749–9216.

Lessons learned from implementing a surge capacity support program for COVID-19 contact management in Ontario.

SETTING: In Ontario, local public health units (PHUs) are responsible for leading case investigations, contact tracing, and follow-up. The workforce capacity and operational requirements needed to maintain this public health strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic were unprecedented. INTERVENTION: Public Health Ontario's Contact Tracing Initiative (CTI) was established to provide a centralized workforce. This program was unique in leveraging existing human resources from federal and provincial government agencies and its targeted focus on initial and follow-up phone calls to high-risk close contacts of COVID-19 cases. By setting criteria for submissions to the program, standardizing scripts, and simplifying the data management process, the CTI was able to support a high volume of calls. OUTCOMES: During its 23 months of operation, the CTI was used by 33 of the 34 PHUs and supported over a million calls to high-risk close contacts. This initiative was able to meet its objectives while adapting to the changing dynamics of the pandemic and the implementation of a new COVID-19 provincial information system. Core strengths of the CTI were timeliness, volume, and efficient use of resources. The CTI was found to be useful for school exposures, providing support when public health measures were lifted, and in supporting PHU's reallocation of resources during the vaccine roll-out. IMPLICATIONS: When considering future use of this model, it is important to take note of the program strengths and limitations to ensure alignment with future needs for surge capacity support. Lessons learned from this initiative could provide practice-relevant knowledge for surge capacity planning.

RéSUMé: CONTEXTE: En Ontario, ce sont les bureaux de santé publique qui s'occupent des enquêtes de cas, de la recherche des contacts et des suivis. Pendant la pandémie de COVID-19, les besoins opérationnels et de capacité de la main-d'œuvre à combler pour conserver cette stratégie de santé publique ont atteint une ampleur jamais vue. INTERVENTION: L'Initiative de recherche des contacts dans le cadre de la lutte contre la COVID-19 de Santé publique Ontario a été mise sur pied dans l'objectif de centraliser l'effectif. Mobilisant des ressources humaines d'organisations fédérales et provinciales, ce programme a permis de faire les appels initiaux et de suivi aux contacts étroits de cas de COVID-19 exposés à un risque élevé. Grâce à des critères bien établis pour les soumissions au programme, à l'uniformisation des scripts et à la simplification du processus de gestion des données, un grand volume d'appels a pu être traité. RéSULTATS: Durant les 23 mois de l'Initiative, 33 des 34 bureaux de santé publique y ont eu recours. Ce sont ainsi plus d'un million d'appels à des contacts étroits qui ont pu être faits. L'Initiative a permis d'atteindre les objectifs en s'adaptant au contexte pandémique en constante évolution et de mettre en œuvre un nouveau système de gestion des renseignements provinciaux sur la COVID-19. Ses grandes forces sont la rapidité, le volume et l'efficacité de l'utilisation des ressources. Elle a été particulièrement utile dans les cas d'exposition en milieu scolaire, permettant d'offrir du soutien à la levée des mesures sanitaires et d'aider à la réaffectation des ressources des bureaux de santé publique pendant la campagne de vaccination. CONSéQUENCES: Si l'on envisage de réutiliser ce modèle, il importe de tenir compte des forces et des faiblesses du programme pour qu'il cadre avec les besoins futurs de soutien en matière de capacité de mobilisation. Les leçons tirées de cette initiative pourraient s'avérer pertinentes pour la planification de cette capacité.

Global Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory Equipment Management and Sustainability and Implications for Pandemic Preparedness Priorities1.

Substantial investments into laboratories, notably sophisticated equipment, have been made over time to detect emerging diseases close to their source. Diagnostic capacity has expanded as a result, but challenges have emerged. The Equipment Management and Sustainability Survey was sent to the Veterinary Services of 182 countries in mid-2019. We measured the status of forty types of laboratory equipment used in veterinary diagnostic laboratories. Of the 68,455 items reported from 227 laboratories in 136 countries, 22% (14,894/68,455) were improperly maintained, and 46% (29,957/65,490) were improperly calibrated. Notable differences were observed across World Bank income levels and regions, raising concerns about equipment reliability and the results they produce. Our results will advise partners and donors on how best to support low-resource veterinary laboratories to improve sustainability and fulfill their mandate toward pandemic prevention and preparedness, as well as encourage equipment manufacturers to spur innovation and develop more sustainable products that meet end-users' needs.

Reduction in Hospital Transfers at a US COVID-19 Alternate Care Site: Maintaining Surge Capacity Support in Imperial County, California.

OBJECTIVE: The transfer rate for patients from an Alternate Care Site (ACS) back to a hospital may serve as a metric of appropriate patient selection and the ability of an ACS to treat moderate to severely ill patients accepted from overwhelmed health-care systems. During the coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, hospitals worldwide experienced acute surges of patients presenting with acute respiratory failure. METHODS: An ACS in Imperial County, California was re-established in November 2020 to help decompress 2 local hospitals experiencing surges of COVID-19 cases. The patients treated often had multiple comorbid illnesses and required a median supplemental oxygen of 3 L/min (LPM) on admission. Numerous interventions were initiated during a 2-wk period to improve clinical care delivery. RESULTS: The objectives of this retrospective observational study are to evaluate the impact of these clinical and staff interventions at an ACS on the transfer rate and to provide issues to consider for future ACS sites managing COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that continuous, real-time process-improvement interventions helped reduce the transfer rate back to hospitals from 36.7% to 14.5% and that an ACS is a viable option for managing symptomatic COVID-19 positive patients requiring hospital-level care when hospitals are overburdened.

[COVID-19 emergency operations center: experience of the Rio de Janeiro municipality, BrazilCentro de operaciones de emergencia en respuesta a la COVID-19: la experiencia del municipio de Rio de Janeiro]. / Centro de operações de emergência na COVID-19: a experiência do município do Rio de Janeiro.

The present report describes the implementation of an emergency operations center to coordinate the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Following the public health emergency management framework proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), this temporary center (COE COVID-19 RIO) started operating in January 2021. The report is organized along five themes: legal framework; structure, planning, and procedures; institutional articulation; health information for decision-making; and risk communication. Major advances obtained with the initiative include improvements in governance for the management of COVID-19, increase in the synergy among sectors and institutions, improved information sharing in relation to COVID-19 prevention and control measures, innovation in epidemiologic analyses, and gains in transparency and decision-making opportunities. In conclusion, even if conceived at an advanced stage of the pandemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, the COE COVID-19 RIO has played a relevant role in shaping the city's responses to the pandemic. Also, despite its temporary character, the experience will leave a lasting legacy for the management of future public health emergencies in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro.

En el presente artículo se describe la experiencia al establecerse un centro de operaciones de emergencia (COE) para coordinar la respuesta a la pandemia de COVID-19 en el municipio de Rio de Janeiro (Brasil). Siguiendo el modelo de gestión de emergencias de salud pública promovido por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), este centro temporal se activó en enero del 2021. El informe se estructuró con base en cinco ejes temáticos: marco legal; estructura, planes y procedimientos; articulaciones institucionales; información en materia de salud para sustentar las decisiones; y comunicación sobre riesgos. Entre los principales avances relacionados con esta iniciativa cabe destacar los adelantos en cuanto a la gobernanza para organizar la forma de enfrentar la COVID-19, el aumento de la sinergia entre los sectores y las instituciones correspondientes, un mayor intercambio de información sobre las medidas de prevención y control de la enfermedad, innovación en los análisis epidemiológicos, mayor transparencia en la toma de decisiones y decisiones tomadas de manera más oportuna. Se llegó a la conclusión de que este COE, a pesar de que había sido establecido en una fase avanzada de la pandemia en la ciudad, tuvo un papel importante en la estructuración de la respuesta. Sin embargo, a pesar de su carácter temporal, la experiencia demostró ser un importante legado para enfrentar futuras emergencias de salud pública en el municipio de Rio de Janeiro.

Impacts of the COVID-19 response on the academic public health workforce

Little attention has been given to the mental and physical health impacts of COVID-19 on the academic public health workforce. Academic public health is an important support mechanism for public health practice, providing expertise and workforce training, conducting research, disseminating evidence-based scientific information to both public health and lay audiences, and serving as a supplementary workforce when additional resources are needed. These roles become more important during a public health emergency, particularly during a prolonged public health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of the COVID-19 response, the roles of academic public health have expanded to include developing and implementing contact tracing, surveillance, testing, and vaccination programs for universities and their surrounding communities, all while continuing to prepare students and support the public health practice workforce in their ongoing efforts. As in other responder groups, this has resulted in significant mental health effects and burnout among public health academicians. The authors suggest important steps that can be taken to improve the resilience of the academic public health workforce and to support their contributions during prolonged public health emergencies. © 2023 The authors.

Managing Interhospital Referrals During a COVID-19 Patient Surge in Japan: Creating Available Beds by Exchanging Patients.

A COVID-19 patient surge in Japan from July to September 2021 caused a mismatch between patient severity and bed types because hospital beds were fully occupied and patient referrals between hospitals stagnated. Japan's predominantly private healthcare system lacks effective mechanisms to coordinate healthcare providers to address the mismatch. To address the surge, in August 2021, Tokyo Saiseikai Central Hospital started a scheme to exchange patients with other hospitals to mitigate the mismatch. In this article, we outline a retrospective observational study using medical records from a tertiary care medical center that treated severe COVID-19 cases. We describe daily patient admissions to our hospital's COVID-19 beds from July to September 2021, and compared the moving average of daily admissions before and after the exchange scheme was introduced. Bed occupancy reached nearly 100% in late July when the patient surge began and continued to exceed 100% in August when the surge peaked. However, the average daily admission did not decrease in August compared with July: the median daily admission (25th to 75th percentile) during each period was 2 (1 to 2.5) in late July and 3 (2 to 4) in August. The number of patients referred in from secondary care hospitals and the number of patients referred out was balanced in August. During the patient surge, the exchange scheme enabled the hospital to maintain and even increase the number of new admissions despite the bed shortage. Coordinating patient referrals in both directions simultaneously, rather than the usual 1-way transfer, can mitigate such mismatches.

Assessing Thai Hospitals' Evacuation Preparedness Using the Flexible Surge Capacity Concept and Its Collaborative Tool

According to the concept of "flexible surge capacity,” hospitals may need to be evacuated on two occasions: (1) when they are exposed to danger, such as in war;and (2) when they are contaminated, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic. In the former, the entire hospital must be evacuated, while in the latter, the hospital becomes a pandemic center necessitating the transfer of its non-contaminated staff, patients, and routine activities to other facilities. Such occasions involve several degrees of evacuation—partial or total—yet all require deliberate surge planning and collaboration with diverse authorities. This study aimed to investigate the extent of hospital evacuation preparedness in Thailand, using the main elements of the flexible surge capacity concept. A mixed method cross-sectional study was conducted using a hospital evacuation questionnaire from a previously published multinational hospital evacuation study. The tool contained questions regarding evacuation preparedness encompassing surge capacity and collaborative elements and an open-ended inquiry to grasp potential perspectives. All 143 secondary care, tertiary care, and university hospitals received the questionnaire;43 hospitals provided responses. The findings indicate glitches in evacuation protocols, particularly triage systems, the inadequacies of surge planning and multiagency collaboration, and knowledge limitations in community capabilities. In conclusion, the applications of the essential components of flexible surge capacity allow the assessment of hospital preparedness and facilitate the evaluation of guidelines and instructions through scenario-based training exercises. © 2023, The Author(s).

Challenges Faced by Hilly Hospitals during Covid-19 Second Wave Disaster: Quantitative Study in Garhwal Region, Uttarakhand

Covid -19 second wave was considered a disaster in India as it was more havoc than the first one. Shortness of breath in patients leads to more demand for oxygen and hospitalization. So, there was a challenge for the hospitals to combat this disease. In the covid second wave, moderate to severe cases were treated at three hospital levels (CHC, Sub-district, and District hospital). This disease was not limited to bigger cities but spread to rural and hilly areas. We conducted quantitative research among government hospitals in five hilly districts of Uttarakhand at three levels of hospitals. Data were collected from a close-ended questionnaire using a judgmental sampling technique and analysed with the help of tables and bar charts. Questions were set based on the pilot study. The challenges explored through this study were divided into five main headings and eleven sub-headings. The main headings were Manpower, Surge capacity, logistics, coordination, and management of non-covid patients. Sub-headings were a shortage of medical staff, shortage of paramedical staff, shortage of sweepers, shortage of ambulance drivers, shortage of ICU beds, shortage of oxygen beds, shortage of covid drugs (Remdesivir and Steroids), oxygen cylinders, PPE kits, difficulty in coordination with staff and difficulty in managing non- covid patients.Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.

Deploying Healthcare Providers during COVID-19 Pandemic.

As the COVID-19 pandemic runs its course around the globe, a mismatch of resources and needs arises: In some areas, healthcare systems are faced with increased number of COVID-19 patients potentially exceeding their capacity, while in other areas, healthcare systems are faced with procedural cancellations and drop in demands. TeamHealth (Knoxville, TN), a multidisciplinary healthcare organization was able to roll out a systemic approach to redeploy its clinicians practicing in the fields of emergency medicine, hospital medicine and anesthesiology from areas of less need (faced with reduced or no work) to areas outside of their normal practice facing immediate need.

Bed Surge Capacity in Saudi Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the hospital beds and intensive care unit (ICU) beds with a ventilator surge capacity of the health system in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: This study used relevant data from the National Health Emergency Operation Center to estimate general hospital and ICU bed surge capacity and tipping points under 3 distinct transmission scenarios. RESULTS: The study results reveal that hospitals in the KSA need to be supplied with additional 4372 hospital beds to care for COVID-19 positive cases if the pandemic continues over a 6 months' period. At the same time, it requires additional 2192 or 1461 hospital beds if the pandemic persists over a 12- or 18-month period, respectively, to manage hospitalized COVID-19 overloads. The health system surge capacity would suffer from a shortage of 1600, 797, and 540 ICU beds under the 3 transmission scenarios to absorb critical and intensive care COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the urgent need for additional hospital and ICU beds in the face of critical COVID-19 cases in KSA. The study recommends further assessment measures to the health system surge capacity to keep the Saudi health system prepared during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Accelerating HIV epidemic control in Benue state, Nigeria, 2019-2021: the APIN program experience.

Introduction: As at 2019, Nigeria was ranked the fourth highest HIV burden in the world. There is varied geographical HIV prevalence in Nigeria. The progress made is inequitable across geographical locations and sub-populations (18). Benue state has the second highest HIV prevalence in Nigeria. In 2018, about 35,623 people living with HIV (PLHIV) were yet to commence antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the state, accounting for an estimated ART coverage gap of 11% out of the combined gap of 320,921 in the country. To close this gap, the Benue ART surge (BAS) was implemented. The aim of this study was to describe the BAS strategic approaches and demonstrate progress in expanding ART access for PLHIV in Benue State, Nigeria. Methods: BAS was implemented in 252 health facilities from May 2019 to September 2021. Data were collected and reported using an Excel-based dashboard and electronic medical records. The trend of HIV case identification, ART initiation, viral load suppression rate, and rate of interruption in treatment during the BAS period was then described and analyzed. Results: Out of 893,462 clients reached, 6.7% (n = 60,297) were diagnosed with HIV and 99.8% (n = 60,236) were initiated on ART. HIV case identification per month increased by 467% from 650 at baseline to a peak of 3685 in August 2020, and then declined by 35% to 2380 in September 2021. All new HIV-infected patients (100%) were linked to ART. Viral load testing coverage and viral load suppression rate increased from 30% (43,185/126,004) and 84% (n = 36,165/43,185) at baseline to 95% (n = 193,890/204,095) and 96% (185,785/193,890), respectively. Conclusion: Implementation of the BAS improved access to comprehensive HIV services in Benue State. The increase in HIV case identification and ART initiation significantly reduced the HIV treatment gap in the state. To fast track the attainment of UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals, lessons learnt from the BAS should be adapted and scaled up in the national HIV program in Nigeria.

Resilience in keeping the balance between demand and capacity in the COVID-19 pandemic, a case study at a Swedish middle-sized hospital.

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, it is critical to find a balance between healthcare demand, and capacity, taking into consideration the demands of the patients affected by the pandemic, as well as other patients (in elective or emergency care). The purpose of this paper is to suggest conceptual models for the capacity requirements at the emergency department, the inpatient care, and intensive care unit as well as a model for building staff capacity in pandemics. METHODS: This paper is based on a qualitative single case study at a middle-sized hospital in Sweden. The primary data are collected from 27 interviewees and inductively analyzed. RESULTS: The interviewees described a large difference between the immediate catastrophe scenario described in the emergency plan (which they had trained for), and the reality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had a much slower onset and lasted longer compared to, for example, an accident, and the healthcare demand fluctuated with the societal infection. The emergency department and inpatient care could create surge capacity by reducing elective care. Lower inflow of other emergency patients also helped to create surge capacity. The number of intensive care beds increased by 350% at the case hospital. At the same time, the capacity of the employees decreased due to infection, exhaustion, and fear. The study contributes to knowledge of conceptional models and key factors affecting the balance between demand and capacity. CONCLUSION: The framework suggests conceptual models for balancing surge capacity during a pandemic Health care practitioners need to provide assumptions of the key factors to find the balance between the demand and capacity corresponding to the reality and maintain the delivery of high-quality healthcare services.

Effects of process changes on emergency department crowding in a changing world: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: During a 6-year period, several process changes were introduced at the emergency department (ED) to decrease crowding, such as the implementation of a general practitioner cooperative (GPC) and additional medical staff during peak hours. In this study, we assessed the effects of these process changes on three crowding measures: patients' length of stay (LOS), the modified National ED OverCrowding Score (mNEDOCS), and exit block while taking into account changing external circumstances, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and centralization of acute care. METHODS: We determined time points of the various interventions and external circumstances and built an interrupted time-series (ITS) model per outcome measure. We analyzed changes in level and trend before and after the selected time points using ARIMA modeling, to account for autocorrelation in the outcome measures. RESULTS: Longer patients' ED LOS was associated with more inpatient admissions and more urgent patients. The mNEDOCS decreased with the integration of the GPC and the expansion of the ED to 34 beds and increased with the closure of a neighboring ED and ICU. More exit blocks occurred when more patients with shortness of breath and more patients > 70 years of age presented to the ED. During the severe influenza wave of 2018-2019, patients' ED LOS and the number of exit blocks increased. CONCLUSIONS: In the ongoing battle against ED crowding, it is pivotal to understand the effect of interventions, corrected for changing circumstances and patient and visit characteristics. In our ED, interventions which were associated with decreased crowding measures included the expansion of the ED with more beds and the integration of the GPC on the ED.